It has been a quarter of a century since India commenced the journey of opening its economy to the world.
Business Cycle Dating Committee FAQs
But the idea of a business cycle dating committee BCDC for India has not received sufficient attention. Most of the research in business cycles is done keeping in mind advanced industrial economies. The scarcity of research for studies of business cycles in India along with data limitations might be some of the reasons why policymakers in India are not too concerned about this issue. Business cycles are the short-run fluctuations in aggregate economic activity around its long-run growth path.
A BCDC maintains a chronology comprising alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. It analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, stock prices, etc. It identifies turning points which act as a reference point for the construction of coincident, leading and lagging indicators of the economy.
Timely identification of economic contraction and its severity allows policymakers to intervene, and thereby reduce its amplitude and duration.
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In addition, firms can re-evaluate projections of sales and profits, and the consumers their purchasing and investment plans, based on information on transitions to new business cycle phases. International experiences of business cycle dating committees. NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization conducting economic research and regarded as authoritative by both academic researchers and the public at large. The committee was created in and has been chaired by Robert Hall from Stanford University since its inception.
The committee waits long enough so that the existence of a peak or trough is not in doubt and does not follow a fixed time rule. CEPR dates the business cycle for the euro area as a whole and not for any individual country. Although the countries in the euro area have adopted a common monetary policy since , countries have heterogeneous institutions and policies. Hence, some of the criteria of dating business cycles for CEPR differ from those for the NBER, although similar definitions of a recession are adopted by both these organizations.
By maintaining a chronology of business cycles, India will be able to better monitor the economy. A BCDC can also maintain an index of coincident, leading and lagging indicators for the Indian economy. We review some of the contributions.
Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcements
On November 14th the UK government cabinet approved the draft text of the withdrawal agreement, the deal reached between EU and UK negotiators. The decision was followed the next day by the resignations of several members of Parliament. We review the first reactions in the blogosphere. Democrats won control of the House and Republicans held onto the Senate in the most consequential US mid-term elections in decades.
Business Cycle Dating Committee FAQs | Centre for Economic Policy Research
Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro won the Brazilian presidential elections after a highly polarising campaign. We are used to think about the value of investment as measured by financial return. But investing with an eye to environmental or social issues and, more generally, ethical considerations, has become more prominent. We review contributions to this debate.
The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences has been awarded jointly to William Nordhaus and Paul Romer for integrating respectively climate change and technological innovation into long-run macroeconomic analysis.
itlauto.com/wp-includes/secret/661-comment-localiser.php We review how economists reacted to the announcement. After amply discussing income inequality in Europe and the US, economists are now looking at the magnitude, implications and possible remedies for this phenomenon in the context of the Chinese economy. Researchers have often highlighted the problematic nature of the currently very complex EU fiscal framework.
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The Brexit withdrawal agreement On November 14th the UK government cabinet approved the draft text of the withdrawal agreement, the deal reached between EU and UK negotiators. US mid-term elections and the global economy Democrats won control of the House and Republicans held onto the Senate in the most consequential US mid-term elections in decades.
The rise of 'ethical' investing We are used to think about the value of investment as measured by financial return.
The Nobel Prize: Growth and the environment The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences has been awarded jointly to William Nordhaus and Paul Romer for integrating respectively climate change and technological innovation into long-run macroeconomic analysis. Inequality in China After amply discussing income inequality in Europe and the US, economists are now looking at the magnitude, implications and possible remedies for this phenomenon in the context of the Chinese economy.